NZ Earthquake Forecast

This is part of a research project to develop and test the efficacy of stochastic models for earthquake probability forecasts, in particular, the ETAS model. While such models show considerable promise, they still have many deficiencies. The ETAS model is specified by its intensity function (instantaneous rate), which can be displayed as a movie. Forecasts are made by utilising all recorded events up to the start of the forecast time interval, and then simulating the model over the forecast time interval. This is repeated many times (see title, pg 5 counts.pdf), enabling the calculation of an empirical representation of the forecast probability distribution (below).

Latest NZ Earthquake Forecast

Forecast Spatial Distribution Forecast Probability Distribution

Details & Evaluation

File/Item Description
Most Recent Forecast 2025-02-10 18:00 (UTC)
Current Forecast Length 28 days
Current Frequency Every 2nd Monday at 18:00 (UTC)
Forecast online at approx 20:25 (UTC)
Forecast Region Rectangular Region: (165.5°E, 180°E, 47.5°S, 36°S), as above
eda.pdf Event Summary Over Previous 100 Days
spatial.pdf Forecast Spatial Distribution (low resol png above)
counts.pdf Distribution of Forecast Event Counts
M≥3.8, 4.8, 5.8 & 6.8, blue distribution on pp 1–4, respectively (low resol png M≥3.8 above)
summary38.pdf Summary and Evaluation of Previous Forecasts: CUSP magnitude scaled to be consistent with SeisComp3 (since 2019-07-14)
summary40.pdf Summary and Evaluation of Previous Forecasts: No magnitude correction for CUSP inconsistency (until 2021-02-15)
Previous Forecasts Before 2019-10-01: GNS sftp website
After 2019-10-01: Google Drive
Data An updated version of package ssNZ is made to make and again to assess each forecast, see details.txt
Data Archive Before 2019-10-01: GNS sftp website
After 2019-10-01: Google Drive

Further details are given on the technical details page.